As for the broader political context, others have beaten me to their keyboards. As Dave Stockton of the League for the Fifth International put it a bit too understatedly:
A 2002 analysis by The Guardian estimated that as many as 20,000 Afghans died in 2001 as an indirect result of the initial US air strikes and ground invasion. According to the UN Population Division as of mid-December 2009 it is estimated that in occupied Afghanistan violent deaths total 1.1 million.A secret US government tally puts the Iraqi (civilian) death toll from 2003 to 2010 at over 100,000.
It is obvious that war criminals of this sort are not entitled to sit in judgement over the likes of Osama Bin Laden.
Martin Suchanek of the same tendency says, "The revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East have shown a real alternative to all shades of Islamism and individual terrorism: the mobilisation of the workers and peasants, urban poor, youth and the women across all religious barriers."
Again, this is too understated. The revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia showed just how irrelevant Al-Qa'ida had become. The U.S. has just given it, or more precisely, the international constellation of Bin Laden's imitators, a new lease on political life.
As'ad Abu Khalil gets a good deal right:
The question remains whether there is any political significance to his death. It is clear that Al-Qa`idah has largely been put out of commission since the US invasion of Afghanistan. It is clear that Bin Laden, and even maybe Al-Dhawahiri, don't have operational links with their followers. It is clear that many of Bin Laden's lieutenants were either captured or killed and that he lost the nucleus of the organization. It is also clear that a small (terrorist in this case) organization can inflict a lot of harm on civilians, if that is what it wants to do. But it is also clear that the danger of Al-Qa`idah after Sep. 11 was transferred to copy cats: groups and gangs that don't have direct links with Bin Laden and his lieutenants but who are inspired by the deeds of the mother organization, so to speak. But what is not yet acknowledged here in the US is that Bin Laden is a product of horrific US policies in the Cold War: of their alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The people in Pakistan and Afghanistan would be relieved today: not because they hated Bin Laden (many do sympathize with him only to spite the US), but because scores of Afghans and Pakistanis have been killed over the years during the campaign to get and kill Bin Laden.... Bin Laden made life more difficult for all Muslims (and for all if you consider the travel effects of Sep. 11): my mother hates him for what he did to the image of Muslims worldwide, not to mention his callous justifications of the murder of civilians (Muslims including). US is desperate for a victory and this one will be a chance, although the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are going terribly for the US. Obama yesterday basically signed the death sentence of the Pakistani president for thanking him for his role. How dumb is that? Even if he thought to falsely claim that the US did not violate Pakistani sovereignty near the capital of Pakistan. Public opinion surveys will soon give a tremendous boost to Obama, who may have increased his chances for re-election. I mean, no one in the Republican camp can now accuse him of pacifism or of reluctance to bomb and kill. Obama has proven that he can outdo Bush, in wars and bombings and killing, etc. Tell that to those who voted for him. On the Muslim side, I can report to you that wild conspiracy theories are already circulating on Twitter and Facebook and Arab websites: it will be like the conspiracy theories about Sep. 11. People are saying that either he was not killed, or that the US had him for a long time, or that he was dead even on Sep. 11. Those unfounded conspiracy theories trouble me: because we--as leftists--need to distinguish between crazy and non-crazy conspiracy theories. So in sum, not much will change in the world after this announcement because Al-Qa`idah has been largely weakened since Sep. 11. Ayman Adh-Dhawhiri has no chance of reviving the fortunes of Al-Qa`idah: he not only has to protect himself but he has the charisma of a cucumber and the speaking skills of Sa`d Hariri (and he is as boring as the latter).
"Not much will change in the world," indeed, but for the U.S., that itself would be a victory, if the prediction is borne out. When the world has been stubbornly, rapidly changing, the best that those who enjoy power can hope for is to "stand athwart history, yelling Stop." There is no more "radical conservative" today than the president of hope and change.
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